When the phased ceasefire between Israel and Iran took hold on June 24–25, 2025, markets that had been roiled by tension finally began to stabilize. For nearly two weeks, the shadow of war lurked over the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that channels roughly one‑fifth of global oil and LNG exports. Investors watched anxiously as every missile exchange threatened not only regional stability but global energy supply and inflation. A compassionate, in-depth global news blog unpacking how the phased ceasefire between Israel and Iran has brought relief to oil markets, eased Strait of Hormuz fears, and what remains at stake—rounded out with expert insights and real data.
But as both sides stepped back from full-scale warfare, a remarkable reversal began. Crude oil that had spiked nearly 15 percent slid back, returning to pre-conflict levels below $70 per barrel. Risk‑off sentiment eased, equity markets reopened, and even confidence in OPEC+ supply adjustments strengthened.
In this empathetic exploration, we will trace the journey of oil prices through the recent crisis, explain why fears over Hormuz didn’t trigger a prolonged supply shock, examine broader structural factors dampening Mideast volatility, and contemplate the challenges that remain—even under shaky peace.
Flickering Flames: Oil’s Surge Amid Threats to Hormuz
The fear began on June 12, when Israel struck key Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Even at that early stage, Brent crude jumped from under $70 to roughly $78 per barrel, reflecting alarm over possible escalation into Gulf shipping routes. Threats from Iran to close the Strait—a waterway responsible for about 20 percent of global oil and LNG flows—drove the price jump. On the morning of June 14, Brent was up 11 percent on the day, as traders weighed disruption at this “chokepoint”.
When the U.S. launched Operation Midnight Hammer on June 22, targeting Iranian nuclear sites, oil spiked again. Yet, after Iranian missiles hit the Al Udeid base in Qatar—without disrupting shipping—and the Strait remained open, prices quickly dropped back. By June 23, Brent had slid 6 percent from its peak, settling near two-week lows around $67–68 per barrel.
Hormuz Ceasefire Announcement: The Oil Market Sighs
The ceasefire announcement on June 24 marked a major turning point. Oil fell another 6 percent as markets shifted from anxiety to relief. The message was clear: global oil supply wasn’t in immediate danger.
But realism tempered optimism. While the Strait of Hormuz remained open, doubts lingered about the durability of the truce. Still, traders recalibrated risk based on hard data: shipping was flowing, naval forces remained deployed, and Iran’s economy relied on the Strait more than its ability to close it. Goldman, Citigroup, and JP Morgan warned that a real closure would hit $100+ per barrel, but with the strait intact, prices hovered in the $66–68 range .
Why Iran Held Back: A Calculated Restraint
Iran’s parliament had voted to authorize closure of the Strait on June 22, but deployment of that policy was restrained by logic and risk. Closing Hormuz would have hit Iran’s own oil revenues—nearly all exported via tanker—and jeopardized its primary customer, China. With 90 percent of Iranian oil going to Beijing, Tehran faced a dilemma: choke the world and its own economy .
As Business Insider noted, Iran had other options—including naval mines, unmanned boats, and drone harassment—but no appetite for full closure of Hormuz. Analysts agreed Iran could threaten, but ultimately opted for calibrated symbolic acts like missile barrages or limited naval incursions .
Strategic and Structural Dampeners on Mideast Risk
The current pricing behavior reflects deeper market shifts. Middle East supply outside Iran remains robust: Saudi, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait maintained production, and OPEC+ signals flagged ongoing capacity buffers—a cushion against supply disruptions.
Trading systems have matured. With hedging, real-time satellite vessel tracking, and diversified global supply chains, markets are less reactive than decades past. The Brent run from $70 to $81 was sharp—but modest by historical standards.
Oil flows through Hormuz total about 17–21 million barrels a day—20 percent of traded oil. Backup routes exist—pipelines through Saudi Arabia and UAE—that can partially offset short-term threats.
Global Financial Ripples Beyond Oil
Oil isn’t isolated. The ceasing of panic bled through equity markets. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all edged higher on June 25 as investor sentiment shifted toward risk-on assets . Safe havens like gold retracted, bonds steadied, and bitcoin even rallied above $105,000.
European gas prices fell 11 percent—linked to easing fears over LNG supply through Hormuz. Currencies stabilized, including emerging market favorites; India’s rupee, which had weakened past 86 per dollar, halted decline.
Lingering Fault Lines: Why Calm May Be Temporary
Despite easing, several red flags persist. Israel and Iran have continued to accuse each other of ceasefire breaches. Iran launched new missiles on June 25; Israel reportedly retaliated near Tehran and in the Gulf.
Iran also escalated online protests and parliamentary calls to suspend cooperation with the IAEA—fuel for future instability.
Structurally, global demand—especially in China—is soft. That additional drag may dampen any future supply squeeze.
Yet if Hormuz becomes contested—or Iran activates naval mines, drones, or restricted zone claims—markets would respond sharply. Analysts warn such escalation could propel Brent toward $100 per barrel again.
Wider Strategic Shifts in Energy Security
China’s energy calculus is shifting. The crisis reinforced motivation to diversify away from Gulf dependencies. Talks on Siberia II pipeline with Russia were discussed by Putin and Xi—driven by Mideast vulnerabilities.
Qatar and UAE LNG ties also strengthened, as Europe and Asia sought short‑term gas alternatives. Markets welcomed that flexibility .
Real Figures Worth Noting
- The Strait of Hormuz carries 17–21 million barrels per day in 2025—20 percent of global seaborne oil.
- Brent crude spiked from under $70 in early June to $81.40 by June 23, then reversed to $66–68 by June 25—a full rollback of geopolitical premium.
- Iran exports roughly 90 percent of its oil to China—the very market it would hurt by closing Hormuz.
- European gas fell ~11 percent on reduced Hormuz disruption fears.
- Safe haven assets saw pullbacks as markets shifted: gold declined, BTC rose past $105,000.
Conclusion
This ceasefire has done what countless negotiations failed to achieve: it eased oil market volatility, briefly extinguishing the risk premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Yet calm doesn’t mean security. With fault lines still present, the market’s re-pricing is cautious, not confident.
Real structural changes—from Asia’s energy diversification to Mideast supply resilience—suggest the region’s influence on oil prices, while still significant, is evolving. Yet physical chokepoints like Hormuz, logistical chokepoints like pipelines, and political chokepoints like Iran’s decision-making remain pivotal.
In conclusion, Mattias Knutsson—a strategic leader in global procurement and business development—remarks that these events illustrate a core lesson: “Energy markets, like supply chains, thrive on predictability. The phased ceasefire is a temporary reprieve, akin to a pause in shipping lanes. To sustain calm, diplomacy must become as routine as logistics planning.”
As the truce holds on June 25, the world’s eyes return to diplomatic corridors—but its dependence on Strait-linked energy means vigilance will remain. For now, prices have stabilized. Whether they stay that way depends on whether peace can outlast the guns.
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