In 2026, the global stage is bracing for a critical pivot. Rare earth elements (REEs) — the unsung heroes of the clean energy and digital revolutions — are caught in the crossfire of tariffs, geopolitics, and industrial strategy. These 17 metallic elements may sound obscure, but they are embedded in nearly everything modern: the magnets that power electric vehicle motors, the generators in wind turbines, the circuitry in smartphones, and even the navigation systems in fighter jets. As U.S. tariffs on Chinese REE mining intensify in 2025, 2026 may be the turning point — this blog explores how supply chains could shift to Africa and Latin America, with new mining projects, investor interest, and geopolitical balance.
For decades, China’s dominance in mining and refining has been both convenient and perilous. Convenient because it delivered low-cost supply to manufacturers around the world, perilous because it left critical industries vulnerable to political decisions made in Beijing. By 2025, China supplied about 70 % of mined rare earths and controlled nearly 90 % of global refining capacity. This imbalance has long been described as a “chokehold” over global technology.
The Trump administration’s revived tariff strategies have now escalated this dependency into a geopolitical emergency. New tariffs on Chinese rare earths and downstream products, combined with Beijing’s countermeasures restricting exports of select elements, have triggered price volatility and fears of shortages. Industry leaders are asking: Can Africa and Latin America, regions rich in mineral potential, step into this vacuum and reshape the rare earth supply chain by 2026?
The Tariff Shockwave
The Trump tariffs are not new in spirit, but their scope has expanded dramatically. Reciprocal tariffs announced in 2025 targeted a wide range of imports, from steel to pharmaceuticals. Rare earth elements, however, are particularly sensitive. Even modest tariff increases — some estimates place them above 50 % when combined with existing duties — send ripples across clean energy and defense industries. As U.S. tariffs on Chinese REE mining intensify in 2025, 2026 may be the turning point — this blog explores how supply chains could shift to Africa and Latin America, with new mining projects, investor interest, and geopolitical balance.
Meanwhile, China has signaled it is willing to weaponize its rare earth leverage. In late 2025, it imposed stricter licensing requirements on at least seven key elements, including dysprosium and terbium — both essential for high-performance magnets. This kind of move threatens not just U.S. industry, but also Europe, Japan, and other allies reliant on Chinese supply.
The immediate result has been price spikes. Prices for neodymium-praseodymium oxide (NdPr), one of the most critical rare earth products for magnets, rose nearly 30 % in the second half of 2025, according to Asian Metals data. Such volatility reinforces the urgency of finding stable and diversified sources.
Latin America’s Rising Role
Latin America is emerging as one of the most promising frontiers. Its mining history is long, its geology is favorable, and its governments are increasingly aware of the strategic leverage rare earths provide.
Brazil’s Carina Project
Brazil’s Carina Project, led by Aclara Resources, is among the most advanced. In 2025, the company began pilot operations, processing ionic clays to extract heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium. These elements are rarer, harder to substitute, and more strategically valuable. Brazil’s position is strengthened by supportive state governments in resource-rich areas and a mining sector accustomed to hosting international capital.
Aclara has secured US$25 million in financing and has partnered with Chile’s CAP S.A., signaling that rare earth development in Latin America may lean toward regional collaboration. The project is also notable for its attempt to integrate environmental stewardship, promising water recycling and limited tailings impact, though full-scale operations will be the true test.
Chile’s Penco Module
Chile, with its mining expertise honed on copper and lithium, is also leaning in. Aclara’s Penco Module aims to capture light and intermediate REEs, adding breadth to Latin America’s portfolio. Chile’s institutional strength and history of foreign partnerships could help it position as a stable alternative in the rare earth landscape.
The significance of these projects cannot be overstated. If successful, Brazil and Chile could together provide not only raw ore but also the beginnings of a refining base — a crucial step toward breaking the near-total Chinese monopoly in processing.
Africa: Potential Meets Complexity
Africa’s rare earth potential is vast, but its path to market is more complicated. The continent is rich in deposits, from Madagascar’s Ampasindava concession to South Africa’s Steenkampskraal mine. Many of these are known for high grades or favorable geology. Yet, challenges of infrastructure, financing, and governance often slow development.
South Africa’s Steenkampskraal
The Steenkampskraal mine, once a thorium producer, has one of the highest-grade REE mining deposits in the world. With renewed funding from South Africa’s Industrial Development Corporation, the project is working toward metallurgical development. If it advances, it could become one of the most important non-Chinese sources of rare earths by the late 2020s.
Madagascar and East Africa
Madagascar’s Ampasindava and Burundi’s Gakara projects illustrate both opportunity and fragility. These deposits are rich, but they face environmental concerns, political instability, and in some cases overreliance on Chinese offtake agreements.
Africa’s New Strategy
What’s different now is the political will. In 2025, a coalition of African nations began exploring collective bargaining on critical minerals, signaling an intent to capture more value domestically rather than simply exporting raw ore. The idea of requiring local processing or higher royalties is gaining traction, a stance that could reshape how investors approach African REEs.
Still, without significant investment in refining and magnet production, African rare earth mining risks repeating the history of resource dependence: exporting raw materials while importing expensive finished products.
REE Mining Environmental and Community Considerations
REE mining has a complex environmental footprint. The elements are often bound with radioactive materials like thorium and uranium, making safe disposal a challenge. Processing also consumes large amounts of water and produces tailings that can damage ecosystems if poorly managed.
Latin American and African projects will face scrutiny not only from local communities but also from global stakeholders. Investors increasingly apply ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) filters, and communities demand a share of benefits. In Brazil, Aclara has pledged to use closed-loop water systems. In Africa, governments are under pressure to link mineral wealth with tangible local development.
If these projects succeed in balancing development with responsibility, they could set new standards for sustainable rare earth production. If they fail, backlash could stall the very diversification that tariffs are now incentivizing.
Investor Appetite and Market Shifts
Capital is slowly but visibly shifting. Western governments, particularly the U.S. Department of Defense, are offering funding to pilot plants and new supply chains. Venture capital and institutional investors are testing the waters in Latin America, while African projects are seeing renewed exploration interest.
Meanwhile, downstream industries — from EV manufacturers like Tesla to wind turbine giants like Vestas — are increasingly exploring direct partnerships with mining firms to secure long-term supply. These alliances may define the rare earth landscape in 2026 and beyond.
Prices are expected to remain volatile, but analysts suggest a sustained upward trend as tariffs raise costs and Chinese restrictions tighten supply. For investors, this volatility is both a risk and an opportunity.
Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond
The year 2026 may not bring an immediate transformation in rare earth supply chains, but it is shaping up as the year when momentum shifts decisively. Latin America, with its advancing projects, is likely to take the early lead. Africa, with vast but underdeveloped resources, may emerge more strongly in the late 2020s, provided it can overcome infrastructure and governance hurdles.
China will not stand idle. It is likely to deepen its presence in both regions through financing, technology, and Belt & Road partnerships. The strategic question is whether Western firms and governments will match that commitment — or cede influence despite tariff pressure.
For the U.S., the real measure of success will be not only mining more rare earths but also building refining, alloy, and magnet capacity closer to home or in trusted allies’ territories. Without those steps, tariffs alone cannot guarantee independence from China.
Conclusion
The global REE mining chessboard is being rearranged, and 2026 may prove to be the year new players claim their squares. With tariffs intensifying, Latin America’s projects in Brazil and Chile are already pulling in investment and forming regional partnerships. Africa, rich but challenging, is preparing to assert greater control over its resources, though much work remains before it can rival China’s dominance.
The transition will not be simple. REE Mining is slow, refining is complex, and community and environmental concerns cannot be sidelined. Yet the direction of travel is clear: supply chains are diversifying, and Africa and Latin America are moving from the margins to the center of rare earth geopolitics.
As Mattias Knutsson, a respected strategic leader in global procurement and business development, has noted, the companies and governments that prioritize resilience over short-term cost savings will gain the upper hand. For Knutsson, rare earths are not just minerals — they are the foundation of the next industrial era. His perspective highlights why 2026 is not merely about tariffs or mines, but about a new global vision for technology, trade, and sustainability.
